Analysis: Which 2024 Kentucky Derby Horses Are Best Bred To Handle The Classic Distance? Presented By 1/ST Bet

As the most expensive auction graduate of this year's Kentucky Derby field at $2.3 million, Sierra Leone right well should be the horse with the best pedigree for success in this race, but not every seven-figure horse is given the same genetic gifts.

Sierra Leone was carried to the top spot on the strength of his dam, the Grade 1-winning Malibu Moon mare Heavenly Love, who topped this year's class of Derby broodmares with an AWD figure of 8.67 furlongs. 

Sierra Leone is her first winner from two foals to race, and was wholly responsible for that figure. He has never raced at a distance shorter than one mile; a distance he successfully completed in his debut. Two starts later, Sierra Leone won the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles, then took the G1 Blue Grass Stakes at the same distance.

His sire, Gun Runner, also ranked highly in his division, finishing sixth with an AWD of 7.40 furlongs.

With just four crops of racing age, the resident of Three Chimneys Farm has had no shortage of high-level performers at the route distance, led by Grade 1-winning routers Echo Zulu, Taiba, Cyberknife, Society, and Locked.

Gun Runner's top Kentucky Derby finisher to date is Disarm, who finished fourth in last year's race.

Sierra Leone has a tall task ahead of him in the Derby, breaking from the second post, and having to shoulder a large field of competitors coming in to grab position on the rail. If he can manage the early onslaught, and he gets a confident ride from jockey Tyler Gaffalione, he has the pedigree foundation to be there in the end.

Japanese import Forever Young finished second in the overall rankings, and his sire Real Steel was the best of his class by AWD, at 7.66 furlongs.

Sires and mares who produce runners in Japan tend to do well in these rankings, and Real Steel, by Deep Impact, carries that tradition forward in 2024.

He has three group stakes winners, including Forever Young, and they've all earned that distinction going a mile or longer. Lebensstil won the G2 St. Lite Kinen at 2,200 meters (about 1 3/8 miles), while All Parfait won the G2 Daily Hai Nisai Stakes at 1,600 meters (about one mile). 

Forever Young is unbeaten in five career starts, ranging from 1,600 meters (about one mile) to 1,900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles). The longer distance came in the G2 UAE Derby, making him one of two horses in the field to have won at that distance, along with Catching Freedom.

Forever Young is out of the Grade 2-winning Congrats mare Forever Darling, who finished ninth among the Derby dams with an AWD of 7.74 furlongs. 

Forever Darling is the dam of three winners from four foals to race. Mon Favori, by Frankel, is a three-time winner, all at 1,200 meters (about six furlongs) including a stakes score in the Teineyama Tokubetsu. Danon My Soul, by Deep Impact, won once, taking a maiden race at 1,700 meters (about 1 1/16 miles).

In an interesting twist, the exacta in this year's AWD rankings share a common second dam in Darling My Darling, a Grade 1-placed stakes winner owned by John and Debby Oxley.

The domestic stallion ranks are led by Triple Crown winner Justify, whose AWD of 7.60 furlongs is not far off from leader Real Steel.

Like Real Steel, Justify is still in the early days of his stud career, with just three crops of racing age. Younger stallions typically have lower AWD figures, because many of their foals have not had abundant opportunities to race around two turns - especially in North America. 

Justify having an AWD figure this high is uncommon, but it's a big positive for bettors who believe in his Derby runners: Just a Touch and Just Steel.

For horseplayers looking for a longer-priced horse whose pedigree could elevate their value, G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks winner Endlessly - who is 30-1 on the morning line - finished third in the overall rankings. 

Endlessly is a son of Oscar Performance, who tied for seventh among Derby sires with an AWD figure of 7.33 furlongs. Like Justify and Real Steel, Oscar Performance is on his third crop of racing age.

His four graded stakes winners include Andthewinneris, who won the G2 Bourbon Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. Tumbarumba took the G3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes going a mile, while Endlessly secured the Jeff Ruby Steaks at 1 1/8 miles.

Endlessly's dam is Dream Fuhrever, an unraced daughter of Langfuhr who has had two winners from five foals to race. Her AWD figure of 8.33 furlongs ranked her third among the Derby broodmares.

In addition to Endlessly, she is the dam of the Mizzen Mast gelding Dream Trip, who won once going one mile.

Though Endlessly's pedigree leans heavily toward turf on both sides, the colt has shown that he can succeed over more than just the grass, with his wins in the Jeff Ruby and the listed El Camino Real Derby taking place over all-weather surfaces. Furthermore, Oscar Performance's best runner is arguably Red Carpet Ready, who is a multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter on the dirt.